Development of an operational statistical forecast model for ambient carbon monoxide
- Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)
Multivariate statistical models for predicting daily air pollution concentrations are widely used by urban and regional air quality agencies. Such models typically link a suite of weather conditions and emission patterns (traffic, fossil fuel combustion, etc.) to pollutant concentrations. The vast majority of these models have been developed for ozone, a summer pollutant. The number of such models for other pollutants (especially those predominant in winter) is quite small, and remarkably few examples exist in the literature regarding detailed models of ambient carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations and links to weather conditions. This paper addresses these points, outlining the development of an operational forecast model for CO in Phoenix, Arizona. First, we perform a CO climatology, examining the relationships between weather. traffic emission patterns, and CO at seasonal, weekly, and diurnal timescales. From this analysis we create a baseline {open_quotes}climatological{close_quotes} model of hourly CO concentrations for a typical winter, which we include within a suite of multivariate statistical models for operational forecasting purposes. The models provide unusually accurate (R{sup 2} > 0.8) 12 to 24-hour forecasts of CO, and they include a sub-model designed to overcome the lack of meteorological forecasts of near-surface (10m) inversion strength, which strongly controls ground-level CO.
- OSTI ID:
- 617777
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9704195-; TRN: 98:002116-0028
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Specialty conference on measurement of toxic and related air pollutants, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States), 29 Apr - 1 May 1997; Other Information: PBD: 1997; Related Information: Is Part Of Measurement of toxic and related air pollutants. Volume 1 and 2; PB: 1004 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Calculating carbon monoxide emissions from vehicle traffic in Phoenix
A Distributed Network of 100 Black Carbon Sensors for 100 Days of Air Quality Monitoring in West Oakland, California