Development of a numerical scheme to predict geomagnetic storms after intense solar events and geomagnetic activity 27 days in advance. Final report, 6 Aug 86-16 Nov 90

Technical Report · Fri Feb 01 04:00:00 EST 1991

OSTI ID:6159539

Akasofu, S I; Lee, L H

The modern geomagnetic storm prediction scheme should be based on a numerical simulation method, rather than on a statistical result. Furthermore, the scheme should be able to predict the geomagnetic storm indices, such as the Dst and AE indices, as a function of time. By recognizing that geomagnetic storms are powered by the solar wind-magnetosphere generator and that its power is given in terms of the solar wind speed, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude and polar angle, the authors have made a major advance in predicting both flare-induced storms and recurrent storms. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the prediction scheme can be calibrated using the interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observation, when the solar disturbance advances about half-way to the earth. It is shown, however, that we are still far from a reliable prediction scheme. The prediction of the IMF polar angle requires future advance in understanding characteristics of magnetic clouds.

• Research Organization: Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Geophysical Inst.
• OSTI ID: 6159539
• Report Number(s): AD-A-240802/9/XAB; CNN: F19628-86-K-0030
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

661320* -- Auroral
Ionospheric
& Magnetospheric Phenomena-- (1992-)
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS
GENERAL PHYSICS
DISASTERS
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
EARTH MAGNETOSPHERE
FORECASTING
INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS
INTERPLANETARY SPACE
MAGNETIC FIELDS
MAGNETIC STORMS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MATHEMATICS
NUMERICAL ANALYSIS
RELIABILITY
SCINTILLATIONS
SOLAR ACTIVITY
SOLAR WIND
SPACE
STATISTICS
STORMS
VELOCITY