Assessing compatibility with reactor safety goals using uncertain risk analysis results with application to core melt
Journal Article
·
· Nucl. Saf.; (United States)
OSTI ID:6134307
General probabilistic criteria are developed for use in deciding whether a nuclear reactor is compatible with a specified numerical safety goal on the basis of the uncertain results of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). However, PRAs are not currently mature enough for these criteria to be used in determining strict compliance to a safety goal. The criteria are derived from a Bayesian viewpoint in which the prior uncertainty (that is, prior to the PRA results) about the unknown parameters of interest is expressed in the form of a prior distribution. For the assumed model, the method guarantees that all reactors ultimately accepted as compatible with the goal have a prespecified exact assurance probability that the goal has not been exceeded. In addition to using the uncertainty inherent in the PRA results, the method also considers two possible biases in the PRA results. The method is used to develop criteria for assessing the compatibility of PRA core-melt results with a proposed safety goal on reactor core-melt frequency. The core-melt estimates and associated uncertainties from four nuclear power plant PRAs are compared with the goal using the criteria to illustrate the method.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Lab., NM
- OSTI ID:
- 6134307
- Journal Information:
- Nucl. Saf.; (United States), Journal Name: Nucl. Saf.; (United States) Vol. 25:3; ISSN NUSAA
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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