What are the likely roles of fossil fuels in the next 15, 50, and 100 years, with or without active controls on greenhouse gas emissions

Conference · Mon Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1990

OSTI ID:6132458

Kane, R L ^[1]; South, D W ^[2]

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1. USDOE Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy, Washington, DC (USA)
2. Argonne National Lab., IL (USA)

Since the industrial revolution, the production and utilization of fossil fuels have been an engine driving economic and industrial development in many countries worldwide. However, future reliance on fossil fuels has been questioned due to emerging concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), and its potential contribution to global climate change (GCC). While substantial uncertainties exist regarding the ability to accurately predict climate change and the role of various greenhouse gases, some scientists and policymakers have called for immediate action. As a result, there have been many proposals and worldwide initiatives to address the perceived problem. In many of these proposals, the premise is that CO{sub 2} emissions constitute the principal problem, and, correspondingly, that fossil-fuel combustion must be curtailed to resolve this problem. This paper demonstrates that the worldwide fossil fuel resource base and infrastructure are extensive and thus, will continue to be relied on in developed and developing countries. Furthermore, in the electric generating sector (the focus of this paper), numerous clean coal technologies (CCTs) are currently being demonstrated (or are under development) that have higher conversion efficiencies, and thus lower CO{sub 2} emission rates than conventional coal-based technologies. As these technologies are deployed in new power plant or repowering applications to meet electrical load growth, CO{sub 2} (and other GHG) emission levels per unit of electricity generated will be lower than that produced by conventional fossil-fuel technologies. 37 refs., 14 figs., 11 tabs.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Lab., IL (USA)
• Sponsoring Organization: DOE/FE
• DOE Contract Number: W-31109-ENG-38
• OSTI ID: 6132458
• Report Number(s): CONF-901262-2; ON: DE91006768
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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