Nuclear Winter: The implications for civil defense

Conference · Thu Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1987

OSTI ID:6131096

Chester, C V; Perry, A M; Hobbs, B F

''Nuclear Winter'' is the term given to hypothesized cooling in the northern hemisphere following a nuclear war due to injection of smoke from burning cities into the atmosphere. The voluminous literature on this subject produced since the original paper in 1983 by Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, and Sagen (TTAPS) has been reviewed. The widespread use of 3-dimensional global circulation models have resulted in reduced estimates of cooling; 15 to 25/sup 0/C for a summer war and a few degrees for a winter war. More serious may be the possibility of suppression of convective precipitation by the altered temperature profiles in the atmosphere. However, very large uncertainties remain in input parameters, the models, and the results of calculations. We believe the state of knowledge about nuclear winter is sufficiently developed to conclude: Neither cold nor drought are likely to be direct threats to human survival for populations with the wherewithal to survive normal January temperatures; The principal threat from nuclear winter is to food production, and could present problems to third parties without food reserves; and Loss of a crop year is neither a new nor unexpected threat from nuclear war to the US and the Soviet Union. Both have at least a year's food reserve at all times. Both face formidable organizational problems in distributing their reserves in a war-damaged environment. The consequences of nuclear winter could be expected to fall more heavily on the Soviet Union than the US due to its higher latitude and less productive agriculture. This may be especially true if disturbances of rainfall amounts and distribution persist for more than a year. 6 refs.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-84OR21400
• OSTI ID: 6131096
• Report Number(s): CONF-871101-42; ON: DE87012524
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
450202* -- Explosions & Explosives-- Nuclear-- Weaponry-- (-1989)
500300 -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Radioactive Materials Monitoring & Transport-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
AGRICULTURE
CLIMATES
DROUGHTS
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
EXPLOSIONS
INDUSTRY
NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS
NUCLEAR WINTER