Accounting for uncertainty and risk in assessments of impacts for offshore oil and gas leasing proposals

Conference · Fri Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 1993 · Environmental Professional; (United States)

OSTI ID:6124154

Wildermann, R; Beittel, R ^[1]

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1. Minerals Management Service, Herndon, VA (United States)

The Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the US Department of the Interior prepares an environmental impact statement (EIS) for each proposal to lease a portion of the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) for oil and gas exploration and development. The nature, magnitude, and timing of the activities that would ultimately result from leasing are subject to wide speculation, primarily because of uncertainties about the locations and amounts of petroleum hydrocarbons that exist on most potential leases. These uncertainties create challenges in preparing EIS's that meet National Environmental Policy Act requirements and provide information useful to decision-makers. This paper examines the constraints that uncertainty places on the detail and reliability of assessments of impacts from potential OCS development. It further describes how the MMS accounts for uncertainty in developing reasonable scenarios of future events that can be evaluated in the EIS. A process for incorporating the risk of accidental oil spills into assessments of expected impacts is also presented. Finally, the paper demonstrates through examination of case studies how a balance can be achieved between the need for an EIS to present impacts in sufficient detail to allow a meaningful comparison of alternatives and the tendency to push the analysis beyond credible limits.

• OSTI ID: 6124154
• Report Number(s): CONF-930523-; CODEN: EPROD9; TRN: 93-019785
• Journal Information: Environmental Professional; (United States), Vol. Supplement; Conference: 18. National Association of Environmental Professionals (NAEP) annual conference on current and future priorities for environmental management, Raleigh, NC (United States), 24-26 May 1993; ISSN 0191-5398
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
03 NATURAL GAS
CONTINENTAL SHELF
ENERGY SOURCE DEVELOPMENT
NATURAL GAS
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
PETROLEUM
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENTS
EXPLORATION
LEASES
NATURAL GAS DEPOSITS
OFFSHORE DRILLING
OIL SPILLS
PETROLEUM DEPOSITS
RISK ASSESSMENT
CONTINENTAL MARGIN
CONTRACTS
DOCUMENT TYPES
DRILLING
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
GEOLOGIC DEPOSITS
MINERAL RESOURCES
RESOURCES
020900* - Petroleum- Environmental Aspects
294002 - Energy Planning & Policy- Petroleum
290300 - Energy Planning & Policy- Environment
Health
& Safety
030800 - Natural Gas- Environmental Aspects
294003 - Energy Planning & Policy- Natural Gas