World energy supply as a price dependent variable. [By country: 1960 to 2000]

Conference · Mon Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1979 · Am. Chem. Soc., Div. Fuel Chem., Prepr.; (United States)

OSTI ID:6108751

Kopelman, J B

The principal conclusion of our analysis of world energy supply and demand is that there are adequate opportunities for increasing conventional supplies of hydrocarbon resources on a worldwide basis, diversifying the sources of supply, and substituting among fuels to allow an orderly development of alternatives through the remainder of this century and for some time into the next without large price increases. This conclusion is based on the following series of observations and estimates: The conventional techniques used to make estimates of resource availability in terms of a single number representing reserves are not adequate information to determine future supply/demand balances. Resource availability should be discussed in terms of recovery costs and market prices. There is no long-term condition of imbalance in supply and demand where gaps occur. In the absence of artificial price controlling regulations, prices respond well in advance of this impending situation to prevent just such a possibility. International energy supply and demand price elasticities have been broadly underestimated. Current estimates of proven oil reserves do not accurately reflect the long-range impact of higher petroleum prices. Higher oil prices are encouraging exploration and the application of advanced recovery techniques so that future additions to proven reserves will be greater than they would have been at lower oil prices. The opportunities for fuel substitution are greater than has generally been recognized. There will be an expansion of the class of major oil exporting nations to include some new members in the next few years (Mexico, the United Kingdom, Norway, China, etc.). The disparity of national interests will cause highly varied responses to changing supply/demand situations in the world markets. Those who join OPEC will increase the diversity of cartel membership and the complexity of production allocation and pricing decisions to be settled.

• Research Organization: SRI International, Menlo Park, CA
• OSTI ID: 6108751
• Report Number(s): CONF-790415-P2
• Conference Information: Journal Name: Am. Chem. Soc., Div. Fuel Chem., Prepr.; (United States) Journal Volume: 24:1
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Fossil Fuels
ECONOMIC ELASTICITY
ECONOMICS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SUPPLIES
ENHANCED RECOVERY
EXPLORATION
FORECASTING
FUEL SUBSTITUTION
GLOBAL ASPECTS
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
OPEC
PRICES