The time series approach to short term load forecasting

Journal Article · Sat Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 1987 · IEEE Trans. Power Syst.; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.1987.4335210· OSTI ID:6100503

Hagan, M T; Behr, S M

The application of time series analysis methods to load forecasting is reviewed. It is shown than Box and Jenkins time series models, in particular, are well suited to this application. The logical and organized procedures for model development using the autocorrelation function make these models particularly attractive. One of the drawbacks of these models is the inability to accurately represent the nonlinear relationship between load and temperature. A simple procedure for overcoming this difficulty is introduced, and several Box and Jenkins models are compared with a forecasting procedure currently used by a utility company.

• Research Organization: Oklahoma State Univ.
• OSTI ID: 6100503
• Journal Information: IEEE Trans. Power Syst.; (United States), Journal Name: IEEE Trans. Power Syst.; (United States) Vol. PWRS-2:3; ISSN ITPSE
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290100 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
ACCURACY
CORRELATIONS
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
FORECASTING
FUNCTIONS
LOAD MANAGEMENT
MANAGEMENT
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MATHEMATICS
NONLINEAR PROBLEMS
PUBLIC UTILITIES
TEMPERATURE DEPENDENCE
TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS