Oak Ridge National Laboratory sectoral energy demand modeling: description and case study

Technical Report · Wed Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1986

OSTI ID:6091999

Hamblin, D M; McKeehan, K M

A major uncertainty in government policy analysis and utility planning has been the penetration of new energy service process and equipment innovations, and the resultant impacts on fossil fuel consumption and electricity demand. The ORNL end-use models combine econometrically determined parameters which depict resistance to change in energy markets with dynamic optimizing simulation components which predict private choice of fuel and technique based upon technical and economic efficiency constrained by the market inertia, and perhaps, by policy. The dynamic optimization may also provide predictions of the shadow prices of conservation initiatives - indicative of the privately perceived cost of policy compliance and of the difference between social and private optima in energy markets. The report provides technical summaries of the ORNL Residential Reference House Energy Demand Model, the ORNL Commercial Model, and the Oak Ridge Industrial Model. Also provided is a comprehensive case study of the potential marketability of electric capacity from the now-defunct Clinch River Breeder Reactor. The case study illustrates the role of end-use modeling within a broadly defined and highly contested set of technical and policy considerations - the electric power distribution capability and institutional constraints to power wheeling, the dependable alternative capacity anticipated over the reactor service life, and the regional growth patterns and consequent electricity and peak capacity demands.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-84OR21400
• OSTI ID: 6091999
• Report Number(s): ORNL/CON-178; ON: DE86007063
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290100 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
298000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Consumption & Utilization
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
DEMAND
ECONOMIC IMPACT
ELECTRIC POWER
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
INDUSTRY
LOAD MANAGEMENT
MANAGEMENT
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NATURAL GAS
PLANNING
POWER
PUBLIC UTILITIES
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR