When the weak attack the strong: Failures of deterrence. Rand note

Technical Report · Tue Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1991

OSTI ID:6081263

Wolf, B

This note examines some examples of deterrence failure to shed light on the question of whether the U.S. nuclear and chemical retaliatory capability is sufficient to deter Nth country attacks with weapons of mass destruction. The Note begins by explaining that past conventional deterrence failures are relevant to potential deterrence failures leading to the use of weapons of mass destruction. Such weapons may not always produce mass casualties, and conventional warfare has yielded casualties on a scale approaching that caused by weapons of mass destruction. Moreover, some leaders at least have shown a callousness toward the deaths of their own countrymen that indicates they will not be deterred by the risk of heavy casualties. Conflicts initiated by weaker states against stronger ones fall into three categories: those resulting from (1) high motivation, (2) misperceptions, and (3) military vulnerabilities of the stronger state. Analysis of examples in these categories leads to the following conclusions: The historical cases are relevant to deterrence of Nth-country missile attacks employing weapons of mass destruction. Even overwhelming strength does not guarantee deterrence. A ballistic missile defense system may add to deterrence of attack by Nth countries, but it should also be able to preclude or at least limit damage if deterrence fails.

• Research Organization: Rand Corp., Santa Monica, CA (United States)
• OSTI ID: 6081263
• Report Number(s): AD-A-241557/8/XAB; RAND-N--3261-A; CNN: MDA903-86-C-0059
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

350000* -- Arms Control-- (1987-)
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
450400 -- Military Technology
Weaponry
& National Defense-- Nuclear & Radiological Warfare-- (1990-)
450600 -- Military Technology
Weaponry
& National Defense-- Chemical & Biological-- (1990)
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION
BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE
CHEMICAL WARFARE AGENTS
CONVENTIONAL WARFARE
DAMAGE
DEATH
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
FAILURES
HISTORICAL ASPECTS
MASS
MILITARY STRATEGY
NATIONAL DEFENSE
NATIONAL SECURITY
NORTH AMERICA
NUCLEAR DETERRENCE
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
RISK ASSESSMENT
SECURITY
USA
WARFARE
WEAPONS