An energy forecast for 1983-1993

Journal Article · Sun Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1984 · Energy Econ., Policy Manage.; (United States)

OSTI ID:6077042

French, M W

U.S. industry can look forward to one more year of negative real energy price growth. From mid-decade onward, however, energy prices will most likely increase more rapidly than the overall price level. U.S. energy efficiency will continue to improve over the next 10 years, although at a slower rate than over the last decade. Coal, oil, gas and electricity prices will increase at differing rates over the coming decade. Rapid oil price growth from 1985 to 1988 will be followed by long-term price growth about 2% in excess of inflation. The wellhead price of U.S. natural gas should increase more rapidly-about 4.5% real growth from 1988 on-but in 1993, delivered gas prices should remain competitive with the price of residual fuel oil, and gas will remain cheaper than distillate in residential markets. Coal prices will increase in real terms, but more slowly than oil or gas. Electricity price growth will not exceed overall inflation, and may even reverse the historical trend by declining slightly in real terms, as the cost of capital falls and fuel input costs decline with a shift away from oil- and gas-fired electricity generation.

• Research Organization: Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates
• OSTI ID: 6077042
• Journal Information: Energy Econ., Policy Manage.; (United States), Journal Name: Energy Econ., Policy Manage.; (United States) Vol. 3:3; ISSN EEPMD
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
COAL
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMICS
EFFICIENCY
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY ANALYSIS
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
INFLATION
MATERIALS
NATURAL GAS
NORTH AMERICA
PETROLEUM
POWER
PRICES
USA