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How to pick winners in the oil-recession lottery

Journal Article · · Mon. Econ. Lett.; (United States)
OSTI ID:6073623

Developing nations that are not members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are not expected to suffer as much economic disruption from oil price increases and a US recession as happened during the 1973--1975 period. The latest price increase represents about 0.7 percent of their gross national product (GNP) compared to 2.5 percent in the earlier period. More non-OPEC developing countries are producing commercial quantities of oil and at least 14 are now net exporters. The effects of a US recession may not be as severe this time because it will not be synchronized with the business cycles of the major industrial countries. Developing countries can counteract a US recession by tightening their monetary policies, imposing import control, and other measures. Most of these countries have improved their balance of payments since 1975 and are in a position to handle disruptions.

OSTI ID:
6073623
Journal Information:
Mon. Econ. Lett.; (United States), Journal Name: Mon. Econ. Lett.; (United States); ISSN MELTA
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English