Trade with the oil-exporters: a five-year perspective

Journal Article · Sun Jul 01 04:00:00 EDT 1979 · N.Engl. Econ. Rev.; (United States)

OSTI ID:6066392

Fieleke, N S

If the recent past is any guide to the future, the United States will be in substantial deficit in its trade with OPEC for some time to come. As a result of oil price increases recently announced by OPEC, US outlays for imported petroleum may quickly rise from $42 billion last year to an annual rate of more than $60 billion, the bulk of which would be for oil from OPEC. On the basis of past experience, US exports to the members of OPEC should not be expected to rise by more than half of the increase in US imports from OPEC in the near term. In competition with other countries that sell to OPEC, the United States supplies about 17% of OPEC's imports, the same share as in 1973. Machinery and transport equipment account for more than half of US exports to OPEC, while military items account for only 10%. The additional $16 billion or so that the United States may pay for imported petroleum in 1979 because of the higher price is about 0.7% of the US GNP. By comparison, the total price increase for the volume of oil imported by the nation during 1974 amounted to about 1 1/4% of GNP. The recent oil price increases more than compensate the members of OPEC for corresponding increases in the prices that they pay for the exports of the industrial countries, including the United States. Unlike the United States, other major industrial countries have generally reduced their oil imports while recording substantial growth in their national output. Further research into some of these cases, especially that of Japan, might be instructive for the United States.

• Research Organization: Federal Reserve Bank, Boston, MA
• OSTI ID: 6066392
• Journal Information: N.Engl. Econ. Rev.; (United States), Journal Name: N.Engl. Econ. Rev.; (United States); ISSN NWEEA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700 -- Petroleum-- Economics
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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
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294002* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
COMMODITIES
DATA FORMS
ENERGY SOURCES
EXPORTS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
GRAPHS
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
IMPORTS
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
MARKET
MINERALS
NORTH AMERICA
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
OPEC
PETROLEUM
PRICES
TABLES
TRADE
USA