G. E. V. A. : Geothermal electricity venture analysis model

Journal Article · Thu Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1987 · Geothermics; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/0375-6505(87)90081-2· OSTI ID:6060623

Parker, D S

The Monte Carlo technique is a powerful method for quantifying the various risks in geothermal development. G.E.V.A. uses this method to allow users to realistically estimate the range of costs to be expected in geothermal electricity development. Such risk analysis offers a number of distinct advantages over the conventional single estimate approach: (1) Risk is made explicit: the uncertainty perceived in the resource estimates are incorporated directly into the cost analysis. Knowledge of both the most likely outcome as well as the range of possibilities helps to create a more rational and informed decision-making process. (2) Variability of outcome is measured: the dispersion in the possible outcome is estimated. Other things being equal, lower variability in the estimated cost of power is desirable. (3) Promotes better decisions: the simulation approach requires more judgment in estimating the values for the uncertain elements in the investment. Recognizing what is known and not known with regard the resource, leads to a more careful analysis. The most likely value for each uncertain parameter along with the range of possible values are input. Results are given in terms of the levelized cost in mills/kWh for which the geothermal electricity can be produced. A mean value is computed along with range of possibilities and their relative chance. Solution for a two hundred sample run takes only about twenty minutes on an IBM personal computer. Use of a fast structured code, such as C-language, using the 8087 match co-processor could reduce the runtime by an order of magnitude. G.E.V.A. is a useful tool for geothermal assessment. It provides improved insight into the economics of high temperature geothermal resources for investment decisions.

• Research Organization: Precision Energy, P.O. Box 243, Helena, MT 59624
• OSTI ID: 6060623
• Journal Information: Geothermics; (United States), Journal Name: Geothermics; (United States) Vol. 16:1; ISSN GTMCA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
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& Business Aspects
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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
299002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Geothermal-- (-1989)
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
COMPUTERS
COST ESTIMATION
DATA COVARIANCES
DECISION MAKING
DIGITAL COMPUTERS
ELECTRONIC CIRCUITS
GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANTS
IBM COMPUTERS
INVESTMENT
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MICROELECTRONIC CIRCUITS
MICROPROCESSORS
MONTE CARLO METHOD
PERSONAL COMPUTERS
POWER PLANTS
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES
RESOURCE ASSESSMENT
RISK ASSESSMENT
SIMULATION
THERMAL POWER PLANTS