Hydrologic effects of climate change in the Delaware River basin

Journal Article · Fri Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 1989 · Water Resources Bulletin; (United States)

OSTI ID:6059767

McCabe, Jr, G J; Ayers, M A ^[1]

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1. Geological Survey, West Trenton, NJ (United States)

The Thornthwaite water balance and combinations of temperature and precipitation changes representing climate change were used to estimate changes in seasonal soil-moisture and runoff in the Delaware River basin. Winter warming may cause a greater proportion of precipitation in the northern part of the basin to fall as rain, which may increase winter runoff and decrease spring and summer runoff. Estimates of total annual runoff indicate that a 5 percent increase in precipitation would be needed to counteract runoff decreases resulting from a warming of 2C; a 15 percent increase for a warming of 4C. A warming of 2 to 4C, without precipitation increases, may cause a 9 to 25 percent decrease in runoff. The general circulation model derived changes in annual runoff ranged from {minus}39 to +9 percent. Results generally agree with those obtained in studies elsewhere. The changes in runoff agree in direction but differ in magnitude. In this humid temperate climate, where precipitation is evenly distributed over the year, decreases in snow accumulation in the northern part of the basin and increases in evapotranspiration throughout the basin could change the timing of runoff and significantly reduce total annual water availability unless precipitation were to increase concurrently.

• OSTI ID: 6059767
• Journal Information: Water Resources Bulletin; (United States), Journal Name: Water Resources Bulletin; (United States) Vol. 25:6; ISSN WARBA; ISSN 0043-1370
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540110*
540210 -- Environment
Terrestrial-- Basic Studies-- (1990-)
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE
ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS
CLIMATES
DELAWARE RIVER
ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPORT
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
HYDROLOGY
MASS TRANSFER
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
RIVERS
RUNOFF
SEASONAL VARIATIONS
STREAMS
SURFACE WATERS
VARIATIONS