East Asia oil-import dependency and vulnerability

Technical Report · Mon Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1982

OSTI ID:6058241

Himberg, H A; Morse, R A; Chapman, D K

The Asian economies are expected to grow rapidly in 1982. It is estimated that the average annual real growth will reach 5.1%. The Asian Development Bank report shows that the oil price increases of the early 1970s drastically worsened the balance of payments problems of its developing member countries (DMC). The 1979-1980 oil price increases have led to a further deterioration in current accounts. The Asian Development Bank estimates that the DMC group oil import bill will escalate from $20 billion in 1978 to $47 billion in 1990. The added dependence on external financing can only damage these countries' future chances of borrowing on favorable financial terms. The greatest energy expense incurred by East Asian economies in the 1980s could come, however, not from oil import costs so much as from financing the transition from oil to alternative fuels. The Asia-Pacific region faces a major dilemma. An economic slowdown in the developing countries and a major increase in their foreign debt jeopardize their economic progress and threaten the international financial system. Yet, accelerated growth and economic development - which is in line with US foreign economic policy - can only mean a higher demand for oil and increased special arrangements with the oil-producing nations.

• Research Organization: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, DC (USA). East Asia Program
• DOE Contract Number: FG01-82PE70399
• OSTI ID: 6058241
• Report Number(s): DOE/PE/70399-T4; ON: DE83012417
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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