Natural gas demand, 1978-1995: forecast and technical documentation

Book · Sun Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1978

OSTI ID:6027080

The California Energy Commission staff analysis of natural gas demand shows that annual statewide requirements of gas for non-utility users will actually decline a total of 1.5% by 1985 under normal weather conditions. This conclusion is based on a detailed, disaggregated analysis of residential, commercial, and industrial use of gas throughout California and represents a slowing of the approximately 20% decline in requirements which occurred from 1975 to 1977. Expected annual real gas price increases of over 5%, following the 15% increase in 1977, will impede future gas demand growth across all sectors of the economy. In addition, conservation measures already enacted by the California Energy Commission will reduce annual natural gas consumption by 9% by 1985 from the level it otherwise would have reached. These conservation measures will save enough natural gas annually to serve the equivalent of over a million households. Further conservation measures, such as retrofitting insulation, are expected to create significant additional savings. Although population growth and expanding use of gas appliances will increase gas demand, existing improved building, appliance efficiency, and intermittent ignition device standards are expected to hold residential sector consumption at its current share of slightly over 50% through 1985. Increased production efficiencies and switching from gas to other fuels will occur in the industrial sector, but by 1985 these gas-saving moves will be counterbalanced by 2% annual real growth in industrial output. In the commercial sector, the Energy Commission's existing building and appliance standards should hold consumption of gas to a constant level through 1985 despite population expansion and 2% annual per capita real income growth.

• OSTI ID: 6027080
• Report Number(s): NP-23977
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

03 NATURAL GAS
031000* -- Natural Gas-- Legislation & Regulations
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294003 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Natural Gas
CALIFORNIA
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
DEMAND FACTORS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL CONSUMPTION
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
INDUSTRY
NATURAL GAS
NORTH AMERICA
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
USA
WESTERN REGION