Regional evacuation modeling: A state-of-the art review
Regional evacuation modeling is treated as a five step process: involving vehicle trip generation, trip departure time, trip destination, and trip route selection modeling, supplemented by plan set-up and analysis procedures. Progress under each of these headings is reviewed and gaps in the process identified. The potential for emergency planners to make use of real time traffic data, resulting from the recent technical and economic revolutions in telecommunications and infrared traffic sensing, is identified as the single greatest opportunity for the near future; and some beginnings in the development of real time dynamic traffic modeling specifically geared to evacuation planning are highlighted. Significant data problems associated with the time of day location of large urban populations represent a second area requiring extensive research. A third area requiring much additional effort is the translation of the considerable knowledge we have on evacuee behavior in times of crisis into reliable quantitative measures of the timing of evacuee mobilization, notably by distance from the source of the hazard. Specific evacuation models are referenced and categorized by method. Incorporation of evacuation model findings into the definition of emergency planning zone boundaries is also discussed. 90 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- DOD; Department of Defense, Washington, DC (USA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-84OR21400
- OSTI ID:
- 5950327
- Report Number(s):
- ORNL/TM-11740; ON: DE91010751
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
990100 -- Management
990200 -- Mathematics & Computers
COMMUNICATIONS
COMPUTER CODES
COMPUTER GRAPHICS
COMPUTER NETWORKS
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
CONTROL
DATA TRANSMISSION
DOCUMENT TYPES
EMERGENCY PLANS
EVACUATION
INFORMATION DISSEMINATION
INFORMATION NEEDS
LAND TRANSPORT
MONITORING
ORGANIZATIONAL MODELS
REAL TIME SYSTEMS
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
REVIEWS
ROAD TRANSPORT
SIMULATION
TELEMETRY
TRAFFIC CONTROL
TRANSPORT
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS