Sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for free-in-air tissue kerma due to initial radiation at Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Journal Article · Sat Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1988 · Nucl. Sci. Eng.; (United States)

OSTI ID:5940636

Lillie, R A; Broadhead, B L; Pace, III, J V

Uncertainty estimates and cross correlations by range/survivor have been calculated for the Hiroshima and Nagasaki free-in-air (FIA) tissue kerma obtained from two-dimensional air/ground transport calculations. The uncertainties due to modeling parameter and basic nuclear transport data uncertainties were calculated for 700-, 1000-, and 1500-m ground ranges. Only the FIA tissue kerma due to initial radiation was treated in the analysis; the uncertainties associated with terrain and building shielding and phantom attenuation were not considered in this study. Uncertainties of --20% were obtained for the prompt neutron and secondary gamma kerma and 30% for the prompt gamma kerma at both cities. The uncertainties on the total prompt kerma at Hiroshima and Nagasaki are --18 and 15%, respectively. The estimated uncertainties vary only slightly by ground range and are fairly highly correlated. The total prompt kerma uncertainties are dominated by the secondary gamma uncertainties, which in turn are dominated by the modeling parameter uncertainties, particularly those associated with the weapon yield and radiation sources.

• Research Organization: 4832000
• OSTI ID: 5940636
• Journal Information: Nucl. Sci. Eng.; (United States), Journal Name: Nucl. Sci. Eng.; (United States) Vol. 100:2; ISSN NSENA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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CALCULATION METHODS
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