(Reduce uncertainty in projection of future sea-level change due to ice wastage)
Three basic goals were stated in the original proposal. These were: (1) develop an understanding of the heat and mass flow into subfreezing snow and firn, in order to model the evolution of the temperature distribution and the infiltration rates through the firn; (2) relate changes in climate, as given by general circulation model predictions, to changes in the surface mass and energy balances of glaciers; and (3) use the above results to analyze the effects of changed surface mass and energy balances on the flow of meltwater through snow and firn, and on the runoff from these glaciers, in a CO{sub 2}-affected climate. This final report summarizes our progress toward these goals. The primary product of this research program has been the communication of this progress in the form of publications in the scientific literature and presentations at scientific meetings. Our research activities in the past three years have provided a new basis for modeling of multiphase flow in subfreezing snow, new field data on the structural properties of arctic firn pertinent to hydrological modeling, and estimates of sea level change in response to changing patterns of runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet. We conclude that forecasts of future sea level changes from all glacier runoff sources may be in error by amounts on the order of +8 cm over the next 150 years, due to the lag in generating runoff to the sea. Our specific research products include two distributed-parameter models of water flow through snow with melting and freezing, a theoretical model of wetting-front advance into subfreezing snow for inclusion in a future model, and a simple large-scale model of the response of Greenland runoff in a changing climate which provides estimates of the effect of melt water refreezing phenomena on sea level changes in response to a range of possible future climates.
- Research Organization:
- Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (USA). Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE; USDOE, Washington, DC (USA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- FG02-87ER60570
- OSTI ID:
- 5928115
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/ER/60570-3; ON: DE91010933
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
GLACIERS
FLUID MECHANICS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
CLIMATE MODELS
ARCTIC REGIONS
CARBON DIOXIDE
ENERGY BALANCE
FREEZING
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
HYDROLOGY
MELTING
MULTIPHASE FLOW
PROGRESS REPORT
RUNOFF
SEA LEVEL
SNOW
ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
DOCUMENT TYPES
ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPORT
FLUID FLOW
LEVELS
MASS TRANSFER
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MECHANICS
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
PHASE TRANSFORMATIONS
POLAR REGIONS
540310* - Environment
Aquatic- Basic Studies- (1990-)
540120 - Environment
Atmospheric- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport- (1990-)