Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

Technical Report · Sun Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 1991

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5903930· OSTI ID:5903930

Das, S

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: DOD; Department of Defense, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-84OR21400
• OSTI ID: 5903930
• Report Number(s): ORNL-6683; ON: DE92004085
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700 -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
294002* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
ASIA
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
ENERGY SOURCES
EUROPE
EXPORTS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
IMPORTS
JAPAN
MIDDLE EAST
NORTH AMERICA
PETROLEUM
TRADE
USA
USSR