Modeling of off-shore oil lease data by probit, logit, and tobit models

Technical Report · Thu Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1979

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5897907· OSTI ID:5897907

Milliken, G A; Ash, K A

Two quantal response models, the probit and logit models, are applied to existing bidding and production data from seven off-shore lease sales. Fifteen probit models were built using individual and combined data sets. Logit models were built for three data sets for comparison purposes. The percentage of leases correctly classified by each probit and logit model for the seven data sets was computed. In order to see if the probit and logit models order the leases from most likely to least likely to produce, the probit and logit indices were classified and the proportion of leases which were producers within the classifications was determined. A limited dependent variable model, the tobit model, was also applied to bidding and production data and three models were built. These models were used to classify the leases as producers or nonproducers. If a lease was classified as a producer, the amount of oil production per year was estimated.

• Research Organization: Los Alamos Scientific Lab., NM (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-36
• OSTI ID: 5897907
• Report Number(s): LA-8107-MS
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
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03 NATURAL GAS
030600 -- Natural Gas-- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
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COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
CONTINENTAL MARGIN
CONTINENTAL SHELF
DATA
DECISION MAKING
GEOLOGIC DEPOSITS
INDUSTRY
INFORMATION
LEASING
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NATURAL GAS DEPOSITS
OFFSHORE SITES
OPTIMIZATION
PETROLEUM DEPOSITS
PETROLEUM INDUSTRY
PLANNING
PRODUCTION
RESOURCES
STATISTICAL MODELS