Sectoral Electricity and Fossil Fuel Demand in U.S. Manufacturing: Development of the Industrial Regional Activity and Energy Demand (INRAD) Model

Technical Report · Fri Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1991

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5886652· OSTI ID:5886652

Boyd, G. A. ^[1]; Kokkelenberg, E. C. ^[2]; Ross, M. H. ^[3]

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1. Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
2. Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States); State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Binghamton, NY (United States)
3. Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

This report describes the modeling approach, data sources, and procedures used to estimate and forecast electricity and fossil fuel use in US manufacturing. The forecasts are required by several models in the Emissions and Control Cost Integrated Model Set (ECIMS) used by the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). The theoretical approach used to develop the Industrial Regional Activity and Energy Demand (INRAD) model combines statistically estimated energy demand equations with forecasts of industrial activity, energy prices, technology penetration, and state-level benchmarks to compute state-specific and industry-specific forecasts of electricity and fossil fuel demand. These INRAD forecasts, in turn, drive the model of utility electricity generation and, after further disaggregation, the models of industrial emissions due to fossil fuel use. The model for estimating energy demand equations is based on the generalized Leontief functional form, with factor-biased technical change and constant returns to scale imposed. The assumption to model fossil fuel and electricity use jointly is supported by statistical estimates. Separate demand equations are estimated only for energy-intensive industries or subsectors.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: W-31109-ENG-38
• OSTI ID: 5886652
• Report Number(s): ANL/EAIS/TM--35; ON: DE91010682
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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LABOR
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