Energy transitions: the forecasts through 2020
Technical Report
·
OSTI ID:5865091
Prepared for the 1980 annual report to Congress, EIA's forecasts of U.S. energy supply and demand through 2020 point to an impending transition from oil and gas to other energy resources. The projections use an integrated system of models for three time periods: short-term (through 1981), midterm (for 1985, 1990, and 1995), and long-term (through 2020). The study's two major assumptions are (1) world oil prices (in 1979 constant dollars and adjusted for inflation) of $42-$93/bbl in 2000 and $58-$134/bbl in 2020 and (2) GNP growth rates of 2.5%/yr through 2000 and 2%/yr for 2000-2020. A sensitivity analysis examines the effects of variations in oil price, energy demand, capital-cost assumptions, and nuclear-power developments. Also included are comparisons of EIA's forecasts with those of Exxon Corp.; Data Resources, Inc.: H. Landberg et al. (Resources for the Future); and R. Stobaugh and D. Yergin (Harvard University). The major long-term energy problem, according to EIA, will be satisfying the demand for liquid fuels either by importing more oil or by increasing domestic production, perhaps via synthetic-fuels technologies. Focusing simply on conservation and solar energy will not resolve this dilemma.
- Research Organization:
- National Petroleum Council, Washington, DC (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 5865091
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/EIA-0281
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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