Dangerous directions

Journal Article · Sun Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1998 · Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.1998.11456824· OSTI ID:585211

Arkin, W M; Kristensen, H

Even in the through-the-looking-glass world of nuclear deterrence, the current situation is bizarre: Although the United States and Russia are friends, and are both cutting back the numbers of strategic weapons, the United States is more able than ever to deliver a devastating, decapitating, first-strike blow against Russia, should US-Russian relations ever sour. Russian nuclear survivability is not assured, creating - at least on paper - a uniquely dangerous hair trigger. After several rounds of nuclear reductions and almost a decade of declared peace, how is it that US strategic nuclear forces have, been enhanced rather than diminished? The answer is partly Russia`s inability to fulfill the unwritten contract underlying US-Russian strategic arms reductions - that both sides maintain high levels of alert. Russia`s day-to-day nuclear readiness is miserable. Its missile force is in a state of flux, with even its land-based missiles severely challenged by technological weaknesses and insurmountable maintenance problems. Its mobile forces - particularly its SS-25 road-mobile missiles and its ballistic missile submarines - are at a virtual standstill. Apparently flawed, Russia`s newest submarines, those of the Typhoon class, are being prematurely retired. The intercontinental bomber force is essentially nonexistent. Russia cannot afford to modernize its nuclear forces, and thus faces the physical reality of forced disarmament. The imbalance vis-a-vis the United States will grow wider after the turn of the century, as the majority of Russia`s current systems reach the end of their service lives.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• OSTI ID: 585211
• Journal Information: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Journal Name: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 54; ISSN BASIAP; ISSN 0096-5243
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

35 ARMS CONTROL
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
NATIONAL SECURITY
NUCLEAR DETERRENCE
NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT