Objective prediction of monthly mean surface temperature and climatological relationships to mid-tropospheric heights: Final report for the period November 1, 1980-October 31, 1986
Technical Report
·
OSTI ID:5812045
This report describes the derivation, testing, and characteristics of multiple regression equations for specifying monthly mean surface temperature in extra-tropical portions of North America and Eurasia from concurrent fields of mean 700 mb height over most of the northern hemisphere, plus the previous month's local temperature. The geographical distribution and seasonality of the specification equations and of temperature persistence are discussed, and the synoptic climatology of surface temperature in relation to the 700 mb circulation is derived. Experiments aimed at refining the existing specification equations are described. Two methods appear promising: use of heights at the 500 mb level, instead of 700 mb, and screening the entire network of previous surface temperatures, instead of only the local value, as potential predictors. Attempts to develop an objective method for predicting, rather than specifying, monthly mean temperatures are discussed. Almost 10% of the temperature variance in the United States during the winter months can be explained by the previous month's field of 700 mb height, surface temperature and snow cover. This result could probably be improved by using output of medium-range numerical models for 1 to 30 days in advance, properly weighted by their accuracy.
- Research Organization:
- Maryland Univ., College Park (USA). Dept. of Meteorology
- DOE Contract Number:
- AS05-81EV10539
- OSTI ID:
- 5812045
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/EV/10539-6; ON: DE88000908
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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