Total Probable Risk analysis: A technique for quantitative risk evaluation of hazardous waste disposal options
- Union Carbide Corporation, South Charleston, WV (USA)
This paper presents an approach for quantifying, in monetary terms, the risk and potential liabilities associated with hazardous waste disposal options. An event tree analysis is used. Various causative events that could occur in the short and long term and their resultant consequences are identified. The probabilities, times of occurrence, and the financial implications of these events and their consequences are estimated. The TPR (Total Probable Risk) of a disposal option is then calculated and added to its present value cost, and the total risk-inclusive cost is used for the comparison of options. Because of the uncertainties involved in the management of hazardous wastes, it is imperative that comprehensive risk and liability evaluation be an integral part of the decision-making process for selection of hazardous waste disposal options. The risks associated with these options can often be intuitively assessed in a qualitative sense. Therefore, risk analysis techniques that produce only qualitative or semi-quantitative risk ratings of disposal options do not provide much additional input to the decision-maker. The technique described in this paper presents risks and liabilities as the added costs of a disposal option (TPR). Such representation is easily understood by managers and is useful as an aid to management decision making. The technique also helps to identify areas for future risk-reduction efforts.
- OSTI ID:
- 5785996
- Journal Information:
- Hazardous Waste and Hazardous Materials; (USA), Vol. 6:3; ISSN 0882-5696
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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