Methods of estimating oil and gas resources

Journal Article · Sat Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 1979 · Am. Assoc. Pet. Geol. Bull.; (United States)

OSTI ID:5782520

White, D A; Gehman, H M

Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas potentials can be made and presented in a probability format reflecting the inherent uncertainties and risks. A cumulative probability curve shows the chances of occurrence of possible hydrocarbon volumes, the risk that there is little or no potential, the average or expected value, and the highside potential. Such a surve can be drawn directly as a delphic consensus of expert opinions. Preferably, however, a curve can be constructed by multiplying, in a Monte Carlo simulation, several factors whose product is potential barrels of oil or cubic feet of gas. Each factor is entered as a range of values whose spread depends on the uncertainties. An example is the multiplication of the possible volumes of prospective sedimentary rock (e.g., in cubic miles) by their potential hydrocarbon yields (e.g., barrels per cubic mile). Other geologic approaches depend mainly on estimated volumes of subsurface hydrocarbon trap space, on areal yields, on geologic analogies with other producing areas, on summation of individual prospect assessments, on the numbers and sizes of potential fields, or on the geochemical material balance of hydrocarbons generated, migrated, and trapped. More purely statistical methods involving the extrapolation of past discovery rates can be used only in maturely explored areas where data are abundant. 43 references, 14 figures.

• Research Organization: Exxon Production Research Co., Houston, TX
• OSTI ID: 5782520
• Journal Information: Am. Assoc. Pet. Geol. Bull.; (United States), Journal Name: Am. Assoc. Pet. Geol. Bull.; (United States) Vol. 63:12; ISSN AAPGB
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020200* -- Petroleum-- Reserves
Geology
& Exploration
03 NATURAL GAS
030200 -- Natural Gas-- Reserves
Geology
& Exploration
EXPLORATION
GEOLOGIC DEPOSITS
MATERIAL BALANCE
MONTE CARLO METHOD
NATURAL GAS DEPOSITS
PETROLEUM DEPOSITS
RECOVERY
RESERVES
RESOURCE ASSESSMENT
RESOURCE POTENTIAL
RESOURCES
SIMULATION