Greenhouse gas mitigation in Germany beyond the year 2020 - technical feasibility versus political constraints in the IEA-ETSAP framework
- and others
Latest applications of energy system models for the analysis of the German energy system for a reference development suggest that total CO{sub 2} emissions can be reduced by 14% relative to 1990 emission levels until the year 2020, even if no explicit mitigation measures are employed. This significant emission reduction is mainly due to the low energy conversion efficiency and the drastic economic shift in the region of former East Germany. In the framework of the IEA {open_quotes}Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program{close_quotes} an analysis until the year 2030 for Germany is performed following harmonized guidelines for discount rates, price projections for fossil fuels etc. For this common study a baseline projection and a reference case are calculated for Germany. The reference case is the traditional least cost configuration of the energy system without CO{sub 2} constraints and the level of energy use is, due to the inclusion of all cost-efficient energy conservation potentials, lower than in the baseline projection. The baseline case is in accordance with the latest expectations that are commonly shared within the German government. Aspects mainly dependent oil future political decisions and impacts of alternative energy policies as the role of nuclear energy and the use of domestic coal are reflected in three variations of the baseline case. In the light of greenhouse gas mitigation agreements the national coal policies are expected to change and the minimum levels of domestic hard coal and lignite consumption are reduced (variation one with constant capacity for nuclear and variation two with a nuclear phase out in the year 2005). In order to analyze carbon mitigation options when no political restrictions are imposed for the domestic coal reduction and the role of nuclear energy a third variation is introduced.
- OSTI ID:
- 577316
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-970522-; TRN: 98:000898-0080
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 8. global warming international conference and expo, New York, NY (United States), 25-28 May 1997; Other Information: PBD: 1997; Related Information: Is Part Of 8th Global warming international conference and exposition; PB: 156 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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