Direct health effects of global warming in Japan and China

Conference · Wed Dec 31 04:00:00 EST 1997

OSTI ID:577254

Ando, M; Yamamoto, S ^[1]; Tamura, K ^[2]

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1. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
2. National Institute for Minamata Disease, Kumamoto (Japan); and others

Combustion of fossil fuels and industrial and agricultural activities are resulting in greater emissions of some greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, therefore contributing to global warming. Using general circulation models, it is estimated that surface temperatures in temperate regions will rise 1 to 3 degrees C during the next 100 years. Because global warming may increase the frequency and length of high temperatures during hot summer months, various health risks caused by heat stress have been studied. According to our epidemiological survey, the incidence of heat-related illness was significantly correlated to hot environments in Tokyo, Japan and in Nanjing and Wuhan, China. The epidemiological results also showed that the incidence of heat-related morbidity and mortality in the elderly increased very rapidly in summer. The regression analysis on these data showed that the number of heat stroke patients increased exponentially when the mean daily temperature and maximum daily temperature exceeded 27C and 32C in Tokyo and 31C and 36C in Wuhan and Nanjing, respectively. Since the incidence of heat-related morbidity and mortality has been shown to increase as a result of exposure to long periods of hot summer temperatures, it is important to determine to what extent the incidence of heat stress-related morbidity and mortality will be affected as a result of global warming.

• OSTI ID: 577254
• Report Number(s): CONF-970522--
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
56 BIOLOGY AND MEDICINE
APPLIED STUDIES
AIR POLLUTION
BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS
CARBON DIOXIDE
CHINA
CLIMATIC CHANGE
ECOSYSTEMS
FOSSIL FUELS
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
GREENHOUSE GASES
JAPAN
METHANE
MORTALITY
PUBLIC HEALTH
REGRESSION ANALYSIS