Modelling estimation on the impacts of global warming on rice production in China

Conference · Wed Dec 31 04:00:00 EST 1997

OSTI ID:577226

Futang, Wang

In this paper, based on the validation and sensitivity analyses of two rice growth models (ORYZA1 and DRISIC--Double Rice Cropping Simulation Model for China), and their joining with global warming scenarios projected by GCMs (GFDL, UKMO-H, MPI and DKRZ OPYC, DKRZ LSG, respectively), the modelling experiments were carried out on the potential impacts of global warming on rice production in China. The results show that although there are the some features for each rice cropping patterns because of different models and estimated methods, the rice production for all cropping patterns in China will trend to decrease with different degrees. In average, early, middle and later rice production, as well as, double-early and double-later rice production in different areas of China will decrease 3.7%, 10.5% and 10.4%, as well as, 15.9% and 14.4%, respectively. It do illustrates that the advantage effects induced by elevated CO{sub 2} concentration on photosynthesis does not compensate the adverse effects of temperature increase. Thus, it is necessary to adjusting rice cropping patterns, cultivars and farming techniques to the global warming timely.

• OSTI ID: 577226
• Report Number(s): CONF-970522--
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
56 BIOLOGY AND MEDICINE
APPLIED STUDIES
BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS
CARBON DIOXIDE
CHINA
CLIMATIC CHANGE
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
GREENHOUSE GASES
PHOTOSYNTHESIS
RICE