Extinction cascade: biological consequence of nuclear war/winter

Conference · Thu Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1987 · Trans. Am. Nucl. Soc.; (United States)

OSTI ID:5772197

Vaughan, G L; Pimm, S; Fields, D E

Current estimates suggest that direct human casualties in a full-scale nuclear war will exceed one billion people, largely centered around urban and military/industrial centers of the northern hemisphere. The sheer magnitude of potential for immediate human death and suffering in nuclear attack and retaliatory response has served as an effective deterrent for >40 yr. It has become apparent, however, that short-term human mortality and mobidity may not be the factors of greatest concern. It is probable that a larger impact may be attributable to long-term environmental degradation. The general consensus is that a large nuclear war would produce enough smoke to alter and darken the atmosphere so that most of the northern hemisphere would experience reduced temperature, low light levels, altered rainfall patterns, and toxic smog/rain as well as significant exposure to radioactive fallout. Analysis of the environmental changes associated with early nuclear winter scenarios showed a potential for the extinction of a large portion of the earth's plants and animals. Estimates of nuclear winter consequences contain considerable uncertainty. The considerable uncertainties contained in nuclear winter predictions are mentioned. Considering these uncertainties, it is difficult to make definitive statements about the survival of any individual species. It is not, however, difficult to predict that, even with the mitigated nuclear autumn scenario, a mass extinction of biological species, floral and faunal, will result from large-scale nuclear war.

• Research Organization: Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5772197
• Report Number(s): CONF-871101-
• Conference Information: Journal Name: Trans. Am. Nucl. Soc.; (United States) Journal Volume: 55
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
450202* -- Explosions & Explosives-- Nuclear-- Weaponry-- (-1989)
AEROSOLS
BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS
BIOLOGICAL RADIATION EFFECTS
CLIMATE MODELS
COLLOIDS
DISPERSIONS
FALLOUT
GLOBAL ASPECTS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MORTALITY
NUCLEAR WINTER
RADIATION EFFECTS
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
RESIDUES
SMOKES
SOLS