Simulation of halocarbon production and emissions and effects on ozone depletion

Journal Article · Mon Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 1997 · Environmental Management

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s002679900059· OSTI ID:576844

Holmes, K J; Ellis, H ^[1]

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1. Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States)

This paper describes an integrated model that simulates future halocarbon production/emissions and potential ozone depletion. Applications and historical production levels for various halocarbons are discussed first. A framework is then presented for modeling future halocarbon impacts incorporating differences in underlying demands, applications, regulatory mandates, and environmental characteristics. The model is used to simulate the potential impacts of several prominent issues relating to halocarbon production, regulation, and environmental interactions, notably changes in agricultural methyl bromide use, increases in effectiveness of bromide for ozone depletion, modifications to the elimination schedule for HCFCs, short-term expansion of CFC demand in low use compliance countries, and delays in Russian Federation compliance. Individually, each issue does not unequivocally represent a significant likely increase in long-term atmospheric halogen loading and stratospheric ozone depletion. In combination, however, these impacts could increase peak halogen concentrations and long-term integral halogen loading, resulting in higher levels of stratospheric ozone depletion and longer exposure to increased levels of UV radiation.

• OSTI ID: 576844
• Journal Information: Environmental Management, Journal Name: Environmental Management Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 21; ISSN EMNGDC; ISSN 0364-152X
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY
ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION
HALOGENS
HYDROCARBONS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
METHYL BROMIDE
OZONE
OZONE LAYER