Climate and climate impact scenarios for Europe in a warmer world

Journal Article · Sat Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1983 · J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol.; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1983)022<1673:CACISF>2.0.CO;2· OSTI ID:5759170

Lough, J M; Wigley, T M.L.; Palutikof, J P

Scenarios for Europe in a warmer world, such as may result from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, have been constructed using the early 20th century warming as an analogue. The climate scenarios are used to construct scenarios of the impact of a global warming on energy consumption and agriculture. Cool winters alone would imply greater energy demand for space heating, but this is largely offset by warmer temperatures in spring and autumn which reduce the length of the heating season. Increased temperature variability combined with a general cooling during winter over north and northwestern Europe suggests a greater frequency of severe winters, and thus larger fluctuations in the demand for heating energy. The impact on agriculture is difficult to assess because of the complexity of crop-climate relationships and because of the importance of nonclimatic factors associated with technological change and perhaps, with enhanced photosynthesis due to increased carbon dioxide concentrations. In northern latitudes, the increase in the length of the growing season would appear to be favorable for agriculture, but warmer summers, drier springs and wetter autumns would be less favorable. A specific study was made of the effect of two different climate scenarios on crop yields in England and Wales with regression models constructed using a principal components regression technique. Most crops showed a decrease in yield for both warm-world scenarios, with largest decreases for hay yield and least effect on wheat yield. A similar regression analysis of French wine-quality showed an improvement in the quality of Bordeaux and Champagne in a warmer world. 52 references, 5 figures, 2 tables.

• Research Organization: Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich, England
• DOE Contract Number: AC02-79EV10098
• OSTI ID: 5759170
• Journal Information: J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol.; (United States), Journal Name: J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol.; (United States) Vol. 22; ISSN JCAME
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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500200* -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Chemicals Monitoring &amp; Transport-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE
ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON DIOXIDE
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
CLIMATES
CROPS
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
EUROPE
GLOBAL ASPECTS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
INHIBITION
MATHEMATICS
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
PRODUCTIVITY
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
SEASONAL VARIATIONS
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UNITED KINGDOM
VARIATIONS
WESTERN EUROPE