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Title: Misspectification of trend in spatial random-function interpolation with application to oxidant mapping. Technical report No. 28

Technical Report ·
OSTI ID:5759167

In epidemiological studies of the effects of air pollution it is desirable to obtain estimates of the exposure to various pollutants of persons living throughout a geographical region under study. On the other hand, it is typically the case that pollution levels are measured at only a few locations. The problems of interpolating these values and of determining the accuracy of interpolation are amenable to analysis by way of spatial stochastic models. Such models can lead to an optimal interpolation technique, in a manner which is reviewed here. In Section 1 estimators based on a correctly and incorrectly specified constant mean are compared with estimators based on an unspecified constant mean. The comparison is done by calculating the corresponding values for the MSE. The ratios of the mean squared errors decreases with decreasing correlation between observations, and are, in general, very close to one. In section 2 estimation done with a specified linear trend function is compared to an estimation with an unspecified linear trend function. For interpolation, in general, the MSE's tend to be close except for high underlying correlation models. For extrapolation - the MSE values can be very different. The third section deals wiyh a biased partially constrained estimator versus a fully constrained universally unbiased estimator in the presence of a linear trend. In general, the biased and unbiased estimators have similar performance, except for very steep linear slopes of the trend. In Section 4 the Driging method was used for interpolating (mapping) values of oxidant levels from 1973 at 16 stations located in the San Francisco Bay Area. For this purpose constant and linear trends were used. The method requires for its application knowledge of the spatial covariance structure of the pollutant to which it is applied. Some difficulties encountered in estimating this for oxidant levels in the San Francisco Bay Area are mentioned.

Research Organization:
Stanford Univ., CA (USA). Dept. of Statistics
DOE Contract Number:
EY-76-S-02-2874
OSTI ID:
5759167
Report Number(s):
DOE/EY/22874-59
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English