Residential end-use load-shape estimation. Volume 1. Methodology and results of statistical disaggregation from whole-house metered loads. Final report

Technical Report · Thu May 01 04:00:00 EDT 1986

OSTI ID:5746649

Usoro, P B; Schick, I C

End-use load shapes are important for the development of improved load forecasting techniques, analysis of load management and costing/rate making. A methodology for estimating end-use load shapes using hourly whole-house metered load data, household demographic survey data, and weather data (temperature) is presented. Although the focus of the project was on the residential sector, the techniques developed can also be applied to the industrial and commercial sectors. In the present approach, the coupling of lifestyle and weather in load demand is clearly modeled. Weather-independent load is modeled with Fourier-like terms (sine and cosine functions) and dummy variables, and weather-dependent load is represented by a thermodynamics-based nonlinear dynamic model exhibiting heat build-up effect, thermostat set-point variation, and appliance saturation. Automatic data pre-processing is incorporated to eliminate anomalous data using pattern recognition techniques. The overall methodology provides an effective means for end-use load shape modeling. In particular, the effect of weather on electricity demand, which concerns power system forecasters and planners, is accurately represented.

• Research Organization: Scientific Systems, Inc., Cambridge, MA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5746649
• Report Number(s): EPRI-EM-4525-Vol.1; ON: TI86920280
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
298000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Consumption & Utilization
DEMAND
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY DEMAND
FORECASTING
LOAD MANAGEMENT
MANAGEMENT
POWER
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR