Drawing down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve: the case for selling futures contracts
Book
·
OSTI ID:5682708
The rapid increases in the price of crude oil during the last two supply disruptions can be attributed in part to the increases in demand for private inventories, which were stimulated by expectations of still higher prices (and hence speculative profits) in the future. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) can dampen this speculative demand for inventories by selling futures contracts in SPR oil. By guaranteeing a supply of oil at a future date, the government lowers the expected future price which, in turn, lowers the current spot price by reducing inventory demand. Using a theoretical model, the authors derive conditions under which the sale of SPR futures contracts leads to a more favorable trajectory of spot prices than does the sale of an equivalent amount in the spot market. They quantify their results by simulating both SPR drawdown strategies in a model of the world oil market and the US economy. The results indicate that the sale of SPR futures can play a significant role in dampening the harmful effects of a disruption. Moreover, by selling futures contracts the government can postpone, and in some events avoid, physical withdrawal of oil from the reserve, which makes the case for this drawdown strategy that much more compelling. 5 figures, 2 tables.
- OSTI ID:
- 5682708
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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