Assessing multiple pathway exposures: Variability, uncertainty, and ignorance

Conference · Tue Aug 01 00:00:00 EDT 1989

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-3294-1_12· OSTI ID:5645241

McKone, T. E.

Human populations contact environmental pollutants through food, water, and air in varying amounts each day throughout a lifetime. Thus, a realistic strategy for managing the potential health risks of municipal incinerator emissions requires a comprehensive approach with adequate attention to uncertainties. Using contaminant transfers from air to food as a case study, this paper considers two important issues in exposure assessment--completeness of the exposure model and the treatment of uncertainty in exposure estimates. This case study is used to distinguish between variability (inherent randomness in data), ignorance (incomplete data and/or lack of scientific understanding) and uncertainty (the variance in exposure estimates attributable to the combination of variability and ignorance). For the air/food pathways, I explore the use of pathway exposure factors (PEFs) that combine information on environmental partitioning ( fugacity,'' biotransfer factors, deposition, etc.) with data on human diet, behavior patterns, and physiology into a numerical expression that links ambient air concentrations in mg/m{sup 3} into daily exposure in mg/kg-d. Following EPA protocol, exposure expresses human contact with contaminants through the lungs, the gut wall, and skin surface. I describe and assess the uncertainty for exposure estimates of incinerator emissions through the air/milk and air/meat pathways. I consider the advantages and disadvantages of various methods for propagating and analyzing uncertainties. 23 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: DOE/DP
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48
• OSTI ID: 5645241
• Report Number(s): UCRL-100678; CONF-8906180-2; ON: DE90001020
• Resource Relation: Conference: U.S. EPA/ORNL workshop on municipal waste combustion: deposition, food chain impacts, uncertainty, and research needs, Cincinnati, OH (USA), 8-9 Jun 1989
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTANT EFFECTS ON LIVING ORGS. AND BIOL. MAT.
ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE PATHWAY
EVALUATION
FOOD
CONTAMINATION
INCINERATORS
HEALTH HAZARDS
WATER
AIR POLLUTION
HUMAN POPULATIONS
INHALATION
PARTICLES
RISK ASSESSMENT
HAZARDS
HYDROGEN COMPOUNDS
INTAKE
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
POLLUTION
POPULATIONS
560300* - Chemicals Metabolism & Toxicology