Prospect for the '80s: economic warfare between oil producers and consumers

Journal Article · Sat Dec 22 00:00:00 EST 1979 · Natl. J.; (United States)

OSTI ID:5630930

Samuelson, R J

World oil markets now appear inherently unstable. Over the next five years, members of OPEC are projected to pile up hundreds of billions of dollars of new overseas investments, all resulting from surplus oil earnings. Not needing more revenues - and fearing for the worth of what they already have - they will be tempted to hold down oil production. But output reductions would probably result in further price rises - and more overseas investments. At the same time, though, scarce oil supplies would reduce global economic growth, increase unemployment, and fan demands for protectionism. With exports stymied, developing countries would find it increasingly difficult to service their foreign debts. Increasing energy scarcity would also tempt producers to use oil as a political weapon - not only in the Middle East, but also possibly in Africa - and would leave the world more vulnerable to internal upheavals in oil-producing nations. With Russian oil production projected to decline, the Soviet Union could become embroiled in overseas oil politics. Many economists and bankers fear increased turbulence in exchange markets, as oil producers try to diversify their dollar holdings. Some specialists think a sharp reduction in oil output - for almost any reason - could bring military intervention by western nations. The world economic system survived the 1973-1974 Arab oil embargo and price increase, but its ability to adjust to and survive the latest round of price increases is unknown. Some factors affecting the outcome are analyzed. (MCW)

• OSTI ID: 5630930
• Journal Information: Natl. J.; (United States), Vol. 11:51-52
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
GLOBAL ASPECTS
OPEC
INCOME
POLITICAL ASPECTS
PETROLEUM
ECONOMICS
CONSUMPTION RATES
DATA COMPILATION
ECONOMY
EMPLOYMENT
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY SHORTAGES
EVALUATED DATA
EXPORTS
FORECASTING
INVESTMENT
MARKET
NUMERICAL DATA
PRODUCTION
STABILITY
TABLES
DATA
DATA FORMS
ENERGY SOURCES
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
INFORMATION
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
020700* - Petroleum- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
294002 - Energy Planning & Policy- Petroleum