Potential impact of Thailand's alcohol program on production, consumption, and trade of cassava, sugarcane, and corn

Thesis/Dissertation · Tue Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1985

OSTI ID:5628498

Boonserm, P

On the first of May 1980, Thailand's fuel-alcohol program was announced by the Thai government. According to the program, a target of 147 million liters of ethanol would be produced in 1981, from cassava, sugarcane, and other biomasses. Projecting increases in output each year, the target level of ethanol produciton was set at 482 million liters of ethanol for 1986. The proposed amount of ethanol production could create a major shift up in the demand schedule of energy crops such as cassava, sugarcane, and corn. The extent of the adjustments in price, production, consumption, and exports for these energy crops need to be evaluated. The purpose of this study is to assess the potential impact of Thailand's fuel-alcohol program on price, production, consumption, and exports of three potential energy crops: cassava, sugarcane, and corn. Econometric commodity models of cassava, sugarcane, and corn are constructed and used as a method of assessment. The overall results of the forecasting simulations of the models indicate that the fuel-alcohol program proposed by the Thai government will cause the price, production, and total consumption of cassava, sugarcane, and corn to increase; on the other hand, it will cause exports to decline. In addition, based on the relative prices and the technical coefficients of ethanol production of these three energy crops, this study concludes that only cassava should be used to produce the proposed target of ethanol production.

• OSTI ID: 5628498
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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ALCOHOL FUELS
ASIA
CASSAVA
CEREALS
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMICS
EXPORTS
FUELS
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MAIZE
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SUGAR CANE
SYNTHETIC FUELS
THAILAND