Mitigation of atmospheric carbon emissions through increased energy efficiency versus increased non-carbon energy sources: A trade study using a simplified {open_quotes}market-free{close_quotes} exogenously driven model

Technical Report · Sun Aug 24 04:00:00 EDT 1997

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/562570· OSTI ID:562570

Krakowski, R A

A simplified model of global, long-term energy use is described and used to make a `top-level` comparison of two generic approaches for mitigating atmospheric carbon emissions: (a) those based on increased energy efficiency; and (b) those based on increased use of reduced- or non-carbon fuels. As approximate as is the model, first-order estimates of and trade offs between increasing non-carbon generation capacities (e.g., supply-side solutions) versus energy-use efficiency (e.g., demand-side solutions) to stem atmospheric carbon accumulations can be useful in guiding more elaborate models. At the level of this analysis, both the costs of abatement and the costs of damage can be large, with the formation of benefit-to-cost ratios as a means of assessment being limited by uncertainties associated with relating given climatic responses to greenhouse warming to aggregate damage cost, as well as uncertainties associated with procedures used for multi-generation discounting of both abatement and damage costs. In view of uncertainties associated with both supply-side and demand-side approaches, as well as the estimation of greenhouse-warming responses per se, a combination of solutions seems prudent. Key findings are: (a) the relative insensitivity of the benefit-to-cost ratio adopted in this study to supply-side versus demand-side approaches to abating atmospheric carbon-dioxide emissions; (b) the extreme sensitivity of damage costs, abatement costs, and the related benefit-to-cost ratios to the combination of discounting procedure and the (time) concavity of the function used to relate global temperature rise to damage costs; and (c) no matter the discounting procedure and/or functional relationship between average temperature rise and a damage cost, a goal of increased per-capita gross world product at minimum damage suggests action now rather than delay.

• Research Organization: Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Assistant Secretary for Human Resources and Administration, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-36
• OSTI ID: 562570
• Report Number(s): LA-UR--97-3581; ON: DE98001505
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
AIR POLLUTION ABATEMENT
CARBON DIOXIDE
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
EMISSION
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
POWER GENERATION
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES