On the effect of systematic errors in near real time accountancy

Conference · Wed Jul 01 04:00:00 EDT 1987 · Nucl. Mater. Manage. Annu. Meet. Proc.; (United States)

OSTI ID:5597021

Avenhaus, R

Systematic measurement errors have a decisive impact on nuclear materials accountancy. This has been demonstrated at various occasions for a fixed number of inventory periods, i.e. for situations where the overall probability of detection is taken as the measure of effectiveness. In the framework of Near Real Time Accountancy (NRTA), however, such analyses have not yet been performed. In this paper sequential test procedures are considered which are based on the so-called MUF-Residuals. It is shown that, if the decision maker does not know the systematic error variance, the average run lengths tend towards infinity if this variance is equal or longer than that of the random error. Furthermore, if the decision maker knows this invariance, the average run length for constant loss or diversion is not shorter than that without loss or diversion. These results cast some doubt on the present practice of data evaluation where systematic errors are tacitly assumed to persist for an infinite time. In fact, information about the time dependence of the variances of these errors has to be gathered in order that the efficiency of NRTA evaluation methods can be estimated realistically.

• Research Organization: Baldham
• OSTI ID: 5597021
• Report Number(s): CONF-870713-
• Conference Information: Journal Name: Nucl. Mater. Manage. Annu. Meet. Proc.; (United States) Journal Volume: 16
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

055001* -- Nuclear Fuels-- Safeguards
Inspection
& Accountability-- Technical Aspects
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
990220 -- Computers
Computerized Models
& Computer Programs-- (1987-1989)
ACCOUNTING
CONTROL
DETECTION
DOMESTIC SAFEGUARDS
EFFICIENCY
ERRORS
EVALUATION
EXPERIMENT PLANNING
HUMAN FACTORS
INVENTORIES
MANAGEMENT
MEASURING METHODS
NUCLEAR MATERIALS MANAGEMENT
PLANNING
QUALITY CONTROL
REAL TIME SYSTEMS
SAFEGUARDS