First detection of carbon dioxide effects: workshop summary

Conference · Mon Feb 01 04:00:00 EST 1982

OSTI ID:5590773

MacCracken, M C; Moses, H

For more than a decade, numerical models have predicted that increasing CO/sub 2/ concentrations would cause a warming of the global climate, with amplified warming in polar regions and cooling in the stratosphere. Such changes, however, are not now obvious in the climatic record, although it is possible that the changes are being obscured by natural climatic fluctuations or by the perturbing influence of other factors. Indeed, a number of observational studies have found, after attempting to account for the possible climatic changes caused by such other factors as volcanoes and changes in solar activity, that the predicted global warming may be occurring. Studies of the polar regions and stratosphere, however, do not yet show the expected changes. The Department of Energy Workshop on First Detection of CO/sub 2/ Effects was held to develop a research strategy that would provide the basis for early identification of the expected CO/sub 2/-induced response so that model projections of a warmer climate and of impacts on the biosphere can either be confirmed, rejected, or modified. A three-part strategy was developed requiring (1) determination of whether a climate or biospheric change has occurred, (2) consideration of the role of other factors that might contribute to or mask the CO/sub 2/-induced response, and (3) isolation of the climatic and biospheric response to increasing CO/sub 2/ concentrations. This third task is to be accomplished by statistical analysis of a CO/sub 2/-specific set of climatic and biospheric parameters that must respond together as theoretically predicted if CO/sub 2/ is to be judged as the most prabable causal factor.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA); Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48
• OSTI ID: 5590773
• Report Number(s): UCRL-87302; CONF-8106214-1; ON: DE82009340
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290300 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Environment
Health
& Safety
500100 -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Basic Studies-- (-1989)
500200* -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
AIR POLLUTION
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE
BIOSPHERE
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON DIOXIDE
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
CLIMATES
CORRELATIONS
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
ENVIRONMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
FORECASTING
GLOBAL ASPECTS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MATHEMATICS
MEETINGS
MONITORING
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
POLAR REGIONS
POLLUTION
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
STATISTICS
STRATOSPHERE
TEMPERATURE MONITORING