Methodology for the objective validation of model performance, with an application to atmospheric transport models

Conference · Sat Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 1983

OSTI ID:5579573

Fields, D E; Miller, C W; Kurtz, S E; Cotter, S J

Evaluation of model performance may consist of objectively comparing corresponding pairs of observed and predicted values. This defensible provided bias has been identified and removed from the data and that the data are distributed normally or may be transformed so as to be distributed normally. Recent modifications to the TERPED computer code have made this program applicable to the analysis and transformation of small and large data sets. TERPED was used to perform Kolmogorov-Smirnov and graphical analyses of mormalized crosswind - integrated ground-level air concentration measurements of zinc sulfide particles released from a height of 111 m at Hanford, Washington as reported by Nickola. Our analysis demonstrates that the data may be considered to be distributed log-normally (..cap alpha.. = 0.014), but not normally (..cap alpha.. = 0.86). Simulations of particulate transport used each of three methods of stability determination - (1) vertical temperature gradient, (2) standard deviation of wind direction, and (3) vertical temperature gradient and wind speed - and each of five dispersion parameterizations. Model performance was evaluated by computing the root mean squared difference of log-transformed value pairs, and it was shown that method (2) and Julich (100m) dispersion values gave the best results. For comparison, the models were evaluated using the nontransformed observed and predicted values, and it was shown that application of this inappropriate approach yields ambiguous results that suggest markedly different conclusions.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-26
• OSTI ID: 5579573
• Report Number(s): CONF-830707-6; ON: DE83015693
• Resource Relation: Conference: Summer computer simulation conference, Vancouver, Canada, 11 Jul 1983
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
EVALUATION
PERFORMANCE
PARTICULATES
ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPORT
COMPUTER CODES
ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION
SURFACE AIR
VALIDATION
ZINC SULFIDES
AIR
CHALCOGENIDES
FLUIDS
GASES
INORGANIC PHOSPHORS
MASS TRANSFER
PARTICLES
PHOSPHORS
SULFIDES
SULFUR COMPOUNDS
TESTING
ZINC COMPOUNDS
500200* - Environment
Atmospheric- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport- (-1989)