Model simulations of the competing climatic effects of SO[sub 2] and CO[sub 2]
- NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States)
Sulfur dioxide-derived cloud condensation nuclei are expected to enhance the planetary albedo, thereby cooling the planet. This effect might counteract the global warming expected from enhanced greenhouse gases. A detailed treatment of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO[sub 2] effect on cloud albedo is implemented in a two-dimensional model for assessing the climate impact. Some general conclusions can be reached. Using a conservative approach, results show that the cooling induced by the SO[sub 2] emission can presently counteract 50% of the CO[sub 2] greenhouse warming. Since 1980, a strong warming trend has been predicted by the model, 0.15[degrees]C, during the 1980-1990 period alone. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO[sub 2] cooling reduces climate warming by 0.5[degrees]C or 25% for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business as usual (BAU) scenario and 0.2[degrees]C for 20% for scenario D (for a slow pace of fossil fuel burning). The hypothesis is examined that the different responses between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) can be used to validate the presence of the SO[sub 2]-induced cooling. Despite the fact that most of SO[sub 2]-induced cooling takes place in the Northern Hemispheric continents, the model-predicted difference in the temperature response between the NH and the SH of [minus]0.2[degrees]C in 1980 is expected to remain about the same at least until 2060. This result is a combined effect of the much faster response of the continents that the oceans and the larger forcing due to CO[sub 2] than due to the SO[sub 2]. The climate response to a complete filtering of SO[sub 2] from the emission products in order to reduce acid rain is also examined. The result is a warming surge of 0.4[degrees]C in the first few years after the elimination of the SO[sub 2] emission. 64 refs., 7 figs., 3 tabs.
- OSTI ID:
- 5571821
- Journal Information:
- Journal of Climate; (United States), Vol. 6:7; ISSN 0894-8755
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
CARBON DIOXIDE
ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
CLIMATE MODELS
SULFUR DIOXIDE
CLOUD COVER
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
CLIMATIC CHANGE
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
SULFUR COMPOUNDS
SULFUR OXIDES
540120* - Environment
Atmospheric- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport- (1990-)