Analysis of the US oil and gas drilling cycle 1940-1983

Journal Article · · J. Energy Dev.; (United States)

OSTI ID:5541175

Blanco, H; Walter, J P

This literature argues that pressure cycle analysis can identify and track what appears to be a regularly occurring drilling cycle. Additionally, this technique is proclaimed to be a powerful tool to forecast turning points (changes in the trend direction) in drilling activity. While the pressure-cycle technique is simple to use, its statistical validity has not been confirmed by formal statistical methods. This paper evaluates this technique, using the orthodox time-series methods of spectral analysis. The authors conclude that the properties of the drilling cycles, in particular their length and phase, are different from those in the literature. Furthermore, their findings cast serious doubts on the validity of pressure-cycle curves as forecasting tools. These conclusions are based on estimations performed with the series of monthly averages of the Hughes rotary rig count for the 1940-1983 period. The authors then proceed to describe the pressure-cycle and spectral-analysis methods and present their results. 11 references.

• Research Organization: Rice Univ., Houston, TX
• OSTI ID: 5541175
• Journal Information: J. Energy Dev.; (United States), Journal Name: J. Energy Dev.; (United States) Vol. 10:1; ISSN JENDD
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020300* -- Petroleum-- Drilling & Production
03 NATURAL GAS
030300 -- Natural Gas-- Drilling
Production
& Processing
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
294003 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Natural Gas
DRILLING
FORECASTING
MATHEMATICS
NATURAL GAS WELLS
OIL WELLS
TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS
WELLS