Risk analysis for Arctic offshore operations

Journal Article · Tue Apr 01 04:00:00 EST 1986 · Mar. Technol. Soc. J.; (United States)

OSTI ID:5517200

Slomski, S; Vivatrat, V

Offshore exploration for hydrocarbons is being conducted in the near-shore regions of the Beaufort Sea. This activity is expected to be intensified and expanded into the deeper portions of the Beaufort, as well as into the Chukchi Sea. The ice conditions in the Beaufort Sea are very variable, particularly in the deeper water regions. This variability greatly influences the probability of success or failure of an offshore operation. For example, a summer exploratory program conducted from a floating drilling unit may require a period of 60 to 100 days on station. The success of such a program depends on: (a) the time when the winter ice conditions deteriorate sufficiently for the drilling unit to move on station; (b) the number of summer invasions by the arctic ice pack, forcing the drilling unit to abandon station; (c) the rate at which first-year ice grows to the ice thickness limit of the supporting icebreakers; and (d) the extent of arctic pack expansion during the fall and early winter. In general, the ice conditions are so variable that, even with good planning, the change of failure of an offshore operation will not be negligible. Contingency planning for such events is therefore necessary. This paper presents a risk analysis procedure which can greatly benefit the planning of an offshore operation. A floating drilling program and a towing and installation operation for a fixed structure are considered to illustrate the procedure.

• Research Organization: Brian Watt Associates, Inc., Houston, TX
• OSTI ID: 5517200
• Journal Information: Mar. Technol. Soc. J.; (United States), Journal Name: Mar. Technol. Soc. J.; (United States) Vol. 23:2; ISSN MTSJB
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020200* -- Petroleum-- Reserves
Geology
& Exploration
020300 -- Petroleum-- Drilling & Production
42 ENGINEERING
423000 -- Engineering-- Marine Engineering-- (1980-)
ARCTIC OCEAN
ARCTIC REGIONS
BEAUFORT SEA
DEPTH
DIMENSIONS
DRILLING
EXPLORATION
GEOLOGIC DEPOSITS
ICE
INSTALLATION
MINERAL RESOURCES
OFFSHORE DRILLING
OFFSHORE PLATFORMS
PETROLEUM DEPOSITS
PLANNING
POLAR REGIONS
RESOURCES
RISK ASSESSMENT
SEAS
SEASONAL VARIATIONS
SURFACE WATERS
VARIATIONS