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The role of natural analogs in performance assessment

Conference · · Transactions of the American Nuclear Society; (USA)
OSTI ID:5494313

A geologic repository is currently being designed to isolate the nations's high-level nuclear waste (HLW). The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulation for HLW disposal (10CFR60) requires compliance with the overall Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standard for waste isolation and places additional requirements on other components of the geologic repository. The demonstration of compliance with these regulations will require prediction of the system and subsystem performance for times up to 10,000 yr. The ability of system performance models to predict the behavior of the repositories over the spatial and temporal scales of interest can only be partially validated using short-term, laboratory scale models and field tests. The use of natural analogs has often been cited as a possible means of validation of repository system performance models. This idea has met with much opposition, generally from modelers and those experienced in validation of system performance models for complex engineered systems. It is concluded here that natural analog studies are useful to the performance assessment model validation process; however, caution must be taken in carefully identifying the questions, the appropriate natural system to answer those questions, and the type and amount of data to be collected in an attempt to both understand the natural system and validate the model. With careful planning of natural analog studies, the studies will be useful for quantitative as well as qualitative purposes.

OSTI ID:
5494313
Report Number(s):
CONF-880601--
Journal Information:
Transactions of the American Nuclear Society; (USA), Journal Name: Transactions of the American Nuclear Society; (USA) Vol. 56; ISSN TANSA; ISSN 0003-018X
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English