Application of EMCAS timeliness model to the safeguards/facility interface

Conference · Wed Dec 31 23:00:00 EST 1986 · Transactions of the American Nuclear Society; (USA)

OSTI ID:5493956

Eggers, R F; Giese, E W

The Hanford operating contractor has developed a timeliness model for periodic mass balance tests (MBTs) for loss of special nuclear material (SNM). The purpose of the model is to compute the probability that an adversary will be detected by a periodic MBT before he could escape from a facility with stolen SNM using stealth and deceit to avoid detection. The model considers (a) the loss detection sensitivity of the MBT, (b) the time between MBTs, and (c) the statistical distribution of the total time required to complete stealth and deceit strategies. The model shows whether or not it is cost-effective to conduct frequent MBTs for loss and where improvements should be made. The Evaluation Methods for Material Control and Accountability Safeguards Systems (EMCAS) timeliness model computes the loss detection capability of periodic materials control and accounting (MC A) tests in terms of (a) the ability of the test to detect the specified target quantity and (b) the probability that the MC A test will occur before the adversary can complete the sequence of stealth and deceit strategies required to avoid detection.

• OSTI ID: 5493956
• Report Number(s): CONF-871110--
• Journal Information: Transactions of the American Nuclear Society; (USA), Journal Name: Transactions of the American Nuclear Society; (USA) Vol. 55; ISSN TANSA; ISSN 0003-018X
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

055001* -- Nuclear Fuels-- Safeguards
Inspection
& Accountability-- Technical Aspects
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION
ACCOUNTABILITY
ECONOMICS
HANFORD RESERVATION
MANAGEMENT
MATERIAL BALANCE
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NUCLEAR MATERIALS MANAGEMENT
OPERATION
PHYSICAL PROTECTION
PROBABILITY
SAFEGUARDS
SURVEILLANCE
TIME DEPENDENCE
US DOE
US ERDA
US ORGANIZATIONS