Solar variability time-series for estimating natural global climate change
Global climate change is thought to occur in response to both natural and anthropogenic influences. Changing radiation from the Sun is one mechanisms proposed to explain a part of the overall global surface temperature warming of the past 150 years. On longer time scales, prior to the Industrial Revolution, solar variability is implicated as a significant component of the variance in paleoclimate records. Proper specification of the climate forcing arising from changing energy inputs from the Sun to the Earth is essential so that the suspected anthropogenic impacts can be detected with the certainty needed for reliable policy making. This requires knowledge of both the amplitude and temporal structure of solar radiative output variability over very long time scales. Yet direct observations exist for only the past few decades. Lacking direct observations, a variety of solar variability time series have been utilized as proxies to extend the present-day observational record into the past. Included are the number of sunspots on the solar disk, the variable length of the 11-year solar activity cycle, geomagnetic data such as the aa index, and {sup 14}C and {sup 10}Be cosmogenic isotopes. Both the present day solar irradiance observations and reconstructions of past solar irradiance observations and reconstructions of past solar forcing will be examined, focusing on the potential climatic relevance.
- OSTI ID:
- 549162
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-950264--
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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